ECON 423 - Economic Forecasting

Fall 2003

Course Information

Instructor: Brad Humphreys
Office: 812 ADMIN
Phone:x52177
e-mail: humphrey@umbc.edu
Office Hours: MW 2:00-3:30pm and by appointment
Syllabus (pdf format)
Group Project Description
Groups and Topics

Class meets in MP008 on Mondays and in ECS333 on Wednesdays

Problem Sets

Problem Set 1 Regression basics. Due 9/18/03 by 12:00pm.

Problem Set 1 solutions (10 points per question).

Problem Set 1 Distribution

Average   = 68
Std. Dev. = 23
Median    = 74
Max       = 97
Min       = 17

Score     N
90-100    4
80-89     5
70-79     3
60-69     2
60-       6

Problem Set 2 Time series decompositions. Due 9/29/03 by 12:00pm.
Problem Set 2 solutions (10 points per question).
Problem Set 3 The IS/LM Model Problem set due 10/15 at the beginning of class.
Problem Set 4 Simulation Exercise. Due 10/29/03 by midnight.
Problem Set 4 solutions
Problem Set 5 Regressions and Forecasting. Due 11/13/03 by noon.
Problem Set 6 Evaluating Forecasts. Due 11/26/03 by midnight.

Class Data

Problem Set 1 Data (Excel File)
Problem Set 1 Solutions (Excel File)
phillips_curve1.xls Inflation-Unemployment Data for Chapter 6 regression example (Excel Spreadsheet)
Table 2.1 U.S. Population (Excel Spreadsheet)
Table 2.3 Civilian Labor Force (Excel Spreadsheet)
solovia.xls Data for Chapter 5 Problem 1 (Excel Spreadsheet)
islm_sim1.xls IS/LM Simulation Spreadsheet (Excel Spreadsheet)
table10-2.dat Table 10.2 Data (Text File)

Labs

Lecture Slides

Chapter 1: Not covered in lecture
Chapter 2
Chapter 2, Part 1 PPT slides
Chapter 2, Part 2 PPT slides
Time Series Decomposition Exercise PPT slides
Chapter 3
Chapter 3, Part 1 PPT slides
Chapter 3, Part 2, Chapter 4 PPT slides
Chapter 4
Chapter 4 PPT slides
Chapter 5
Chapter 5 PPT slides
Chapter 6
Chapter 6 PDF Slides (Use for 9/3/03 lecture/lab)
Regression Example PPT slides
Chapter 7
Chapter 7 Slides pdf
Chapter 8
Chapter 8 Slides pdf
Chapter 8 Simulation Lab PPT slides
Suits Paper, American Economic Review, vol. 52, no. 1 (march 1962), pp 104-132. (Note you must be logged in to a computer in the UMBC domain to read this article).
Chapter 9
Chapter 9 Lab material + Lecture pdf
Samuelson Paper, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 21, no. 2 (May 1939), pp 75-78. (Note you must be logged in to a computer in the UMBC domain to read this article).
Adelman & Adelman Paper, Econometrica, vol. 27, no. 4 (October 1959), pp 596-625. (Note you must be logged in to a computer in the UMBC domain to read this article).
Chapter 10
Chapter 10, part 1 PPT
Chapter 10, part 2 PPT
Chapter 10, MA and Regression Forecast lab PPT slides
Chapter 10, Naive Forecast lab PPPT
Chapter 10 Slides pdf
Chapter 11
Chapter 11 Slides PPT
Chapter 16
Chapter 16 Slides pdf

Class Links

Resources for Economists on the Internet, the definitve link for economic data on the internet.