POLI 300   Quantitative Analysis in Political Science [4 credits]

The primary objective of this course is to help students understand and evaluate the kind of quantitative information presented in tables, graphs, and statistics in political science textbooks and articles and commonly invoked in debates concerning public affairs and public policy.  It also helps develop students’ own research skills.  It focuses particularly on survey research on public opinion and voting behavior. Prerequisite: POLI 100 and a Math Placement sufficient for MATH 100. Note: not open to students who have taken POLI 302.   This course is taught every Fall.
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Announcements:

Topics #12 and #13 will be covered during the two weeks following Thanksgiving and Topic #14 will not be covered at all.

The Final Exam is scheduled for Friday, December 17, 1:00-3:00 PM, in PUP 208.  Please see me in advance if this time presents a real problem for you.  Problem Set #12B may be turned in any time through Tuesday, December 21, 5:00 PM (end of the final exam period).   Guide to the Final Exam  [updated for Fall 2010]

For those who want it, there will be a review session on Tuesday, December 14, at 2:00 in PUP 208 to go over questions on the Second Test and to address any other review questions.

Two grading corrections with respect to Tests 2:
If you answered “3” to Blue Book Q#1(d), present your exam book to me (at the final exam or elsewhere) and I will add one point to your score (and 0.16 to your grade).

Grades on Final Exam and Course
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Syllabus    [HTML]   [PDF]

Guide to the Final Exam

POLI 300 Introduction  [PPT]

Senator Coburn's Amendment to Eliminate the NSF Political "Science" Program

Class Handouts

#1    Survey Research        [PowerPoint]
#2    Random Sampling       [PowerPoint]
#3    Variables                [PowerPoint]
#4    Measuring Variables       [Power Point]
#5    Frequency Tables, Bar Graphs, and Histograms   [PowerPoint]
#6    Measures of Central Tendency (Averages)    [PowerPoint]
#7    Measures of Dispersion
[PowerPoint]
#8    Standard Scores and the Normal Distribution    [PowerPoint]
#9    Relationships Between Variables and Measures of Association
#10    Crosstabulations    [PowerPoint]
#11    Scattergrams
#12    Table Percentages and Association Between Variables  [PowerPoint]
#13    Regression  and Correlation   [PowerPoint]
#14    Spurious Association, Causal Relationships, and Multivariate Analysis

Data and SPSS

UMBC OIT Computer Labs Campus Locations
SETUPS: ANES 1972-2008  [Handout #1A]
SETUPS: ANES 1972-2008 Codebook  [Handout #1B]
Data Analysis Using SETUPS and SPSS  [Handout #1C]
Using SETUPS 1972-2008 ANES Data with SPSS  [Handout #1D]

SPSS Screen Shots  (PowerPoint)
SETUPS 2004 (On-Line Data Analysis)
Harvard-MIT Data Center's Guide to SPSS

Student Political Attitudes Survey

Student Survey Questionnaire [Fall 2010]
Student Survey Data  [Fall 2010] (PDF)
Student Survey Data  [Fall 2010] (SPSS file)
Student Survey Data  [Fall 2010] (Excel file)
Student Survey Tabulations (PowerPoint)
Cumulative Student Survey (plus ANES) Charts (PowerPoint)

Other PowerPoint Slides

Trends in Party Support/Red States, Blue States [PPT]
Vote for Black Presidential Candidate?  [PPT]

Problem Sets

Problem Set #1A:   Introduction to SPSS
Problem Set #1B:   Question Design
Problem Set #2:      Sampling
Problem Set #3A:   Identifying Variables
Problem Set #3B:   Levels of Measurement
Problem Set #4:      Measuring Variables
Problem Set #5A:   Frequency Distributions
Problem Set #5B:   SPSS Frequencies
Problem Set #5C:   Frequency Bar Graphs and Histograms  [Attachment A]
Problem Set #6:      Measures of Central Tendency
Problem Set #7:      Measures of Dispersion     [Charts]
Problem Set #10:    Crosstabulations
Problem Set #11:    Scattergrams     Data:  Text    Excel    SPSS  [also with SETUPS/ANES data]
Problem Set #12A: Table Percentages   [XTABS for Q1 and Q2]   [XTABS Q3]
Problem Set #12B: SPSS Table Percentages
Problem Set #13:    Correlation and Regression
Problem Set #14A: Spurious Association and Confounding Effects
Problem Set #14B: Control Tables
Problem Set #14C: SPSS Control Tables

Problem Set #1B: A&D
Problem Set #2:  A&D
Problem Set #3A: A&D
Problem Set #3B: A&D
Problem Set #4: A&D
Problem Set #5A: A&D
Problem Set #5B: A&D
Problem Set #5C: A&D  [PPT]
Problem Set #6: A&D
Problem Set #7: A&D    [PPT]
Problem Set #9: A&D
Problem Set #10: A&D  [PPT]
Problem Set #11: A&D  [PPT]
Problem Set #12A: A&D
Problem Set #13: A&D

Other Data Used in Class

Ann Landers' Survey on Parenthood
Party ID Pie Charts
Historical Presidential Approval
Bush Approval (Gallup)
Bush Approval By Party ID (Gallup)
Bush Approval, All Polls (01/01-01/07)
Bush Approval, All Polls (01/01-08/04)
Bush Approval, All Polls (01/04-08/07)

On-Line Statistical Demonstrations

Statistical "Applets"
The Normal Curve: The 68% / 95% / 99.7% Rule
The Normal Curve
Normal Distributions
Probability and the Normal Distribution

Research Randomizer

Political Science Blogs/Websites

Political Arithmetick: Where Numbers and Politics Meet (Prof. Charles Franklin, U. Wisconsin)
Fruits and Votes (Prof. Matthew Shugart, UC San Diego)
Political Science Weblog (Prof. Henry Farrell, George Washington U.)
Prof. Josep Colomer's Weekly Blog (U. Pompeu Fabra, Spain)
Polysigh
Real Clear Politics
PollingReports.com

Polling and Survey Research

Gallup Organization
The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research
National Election Pool
American National Elections Studies (ANES)
Inter-university Consortium for Political Research  (ICPSR)
Census Bureau

Statistical Abstract of the U.S.

Current Population Survey

General Social Survey (GSS)

Panel Study of Income Dynamics
National Crime Victimization Survey (Bureau of Justice Statistics)
National Crime Victimization Survey (ICPSR)
National Opinion Research Center (NORC)
National Science Foundation

Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
British Election Studies

Historical Data Processing

Presidential Elections (mostly 2004)

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
Election Projection:  2004 Edition
Electoral College: Meta-Analysis of State Polls
USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll
Washington Post Tracking Poll
Presidential Trial Heats: A Daily Time Series (James Stimson, UNCH)
2004 Presidential Electoral Collge Predictions
Race 2004.net
Electoral College Calculator