POLI 423 --- Presidential
Elections
This
course
examines the subject of U. S. Presidential selection from
institutional, historical, and theoretical perspectives. We will
first examine the problem of forecasting Presidential election
outcomes and then take a look at the present bases of party
support in Presidential politics. We then turn to examine the
creation, evolution, and contemporary structure of the
Presidential selection process and the strategic considerations
that derive from this structure. Much of the course will focus on
the design and evolution of the Electoral College, its
contemporary function as a vote counting mechanism, and proposals
for its reform or abolition. A variety of alternative institutions
will be considered and compared with electoral methods in other
countries and analyzed in light of concepts in the theory of
voting and social choice. We will also
consider the problem of multi-candidate elections, a problem that
is relevant both to the major-party Presidential nominating
process and to Presidential elections with significant third-party
activity.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Course
Syllabus for Fall 2012
Guide to Final Test
PowerPoint Files (with slides not discussed in class deleted)
covered since the In-Class Midterm Test
Presidential
Election Mechanics
Election Inversion under the
Electoral College
Voting Power under
the Electoral College
Presidential Nominations
Multi-Candidate
Elections and Electoral College Deadlock
Guidelines for Research Reports
Student Election Selections
Presentations
1840
(Jones)
1904 (Socha)
1912 (Cook)
1916 (Good)
1932 (Fernandez)
1936
(Winning)
1948 (Dike)
1972 (Lahl)
1976 (Nagra)
1980 (Broadstone)
2000 (Evans)
2008 (Wallace)
We agreed on Nov. 19 that the make-up class for Hurricane Sandy
will be held on Wednesday, December 12 (Study Day), beginning at
3:00 in the POLI conference room. Student presentations
will be given on December 10 and 12 in chronological order of
elections reported on, except that Nicholas Evans and Jacob
Wallace will give the lead-off presentations.
Sample Reports from earlier semesters (Fall 2008 and Spring
2004) are posted below. These were among the better
papers, receiving grades from B+ to A-. They may not
include the very best papers because I restricted them to
reports on elections not selected by students this semester.
1856
1876
1888
1952
1960
Guide to In-Class Midterm Test
Midterm Take-Home Essay Assignment
PowerPoint Files (with slides not discussed in class deleted)
covered by the In-Class Midterm Test:
The 2012 Election in Context
Forecasting
Presidential Elections
Trends in Party Support
Media and
Presidential Campaigns
Frank and Gelman
The U.S. Electoral College
CNN
2012 Election and Exit Poll Results
2012
Cartograms More
Forecasts
Washington
Post's Crystal Ball
Real Clear Politics
Election
Forecasts (Nate Silver 538)
David Leip's Atlas of
U.S. Presidential Elections
The
Monkey Cage
Gallup Organization
Larry
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Washington
Post Wonkblog (Ezra Klein)
Electoral-Vote.Com
PollyVote
Election Forecasting
Princeton
Election Consortium
Votomatic
270 To
Win
Course Outline, Reading Assignments,
and Problem Sets (Topics #6-10 Revised 10/19/12):
During the first month of the semester, you should read the
entire Polsby and Wildavsky textbook on Presidential
Elections. Careful reading of this book will give you a
solid foundation in the basic political science findings
concerning public opinion, party identification, voting behavior,
campaign finance, interest groups, political parties, and election
campaigns needed to understand the present Presidential selection
process — both the prenomination campaign that took place last
Spring (and earlier) and the general election campaign that is now
beginning. While I will certainly be willing and able to
take time in class to discuss points that arise out of this book
and to address any questions you have, I will not “go over” the
book on a regular basis in class. Rather class time will be
devoted largely to the topics as outlined below.
Several copies of Polsby and Wildavsky and of Lichtman (various
recent editions) have been placed on reserve in the library; the
library is acquiring a copy of the most recent edition of Edwards
and place it on reserve. The reserve loan period is 3 days
[per student requests, will be changed to 1 day].
1.
(September 10) Introduction / 2012 in Context
/ Forecasting Presidential Elections
Presidential
Trial Heats
Gallup
Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2008
Real Clear Politics
Lichtman, The
Keys and Table 2.1
Lichtman,
Introduction and Chapters 1-2
The 2012 Election in Context
[PPT]
Forecasting
Presidential Elections [PPT]
Incumbency Crosstabulation
Forecasting Data
2. (September 17)
Forecasting (cont.) / Trends in Party Support
Lichtman, Chapters 8-12
Larry
M. Bartels, "What's the Matter with What's the Matter with Kansas?"
Andrew
Gelman et al., “Rich State, Poor State, Red State, Blue State:
What’s the Matter with Connecticut” [optional]
Andrew
Gelman, "Rich State, Poor State, Red State, Blue State: Why
Americans Vote the Way They Do" [slides for talk]
[optional]
Forecasting
Presidential Elections [PPT]
Trends in Party Support
[PPT]
David Hopkins and Laura Stoker,
"Partisan Voters, Partisan States: How the Rising Strength of
Party and Ideology in the American Public Affects Aggregate
Electoral Results"
Frank and Gelman (and Hopkins
& Stoker) [PPT]
3. (September 24) How
the Electoral College Works in Practice / Alternatives to the
Electoral College
Edwards, Chapter 1
Danny Adkinson and Christopher
Elliot, “The Electoral College: A Misunderstood
Institution”
Koza
et al., Chapter 1
Koza
et al, Chapter 2
Edwards, Forward (by Neal R. Peirce), Preface, and Chapter
1 (preview)
Judith Best, Testimony On Proposals For Electoral
College Reform Before The House Judiciary Subcommittee On The
Constitution, 1997
Koza
et al, Chapter 3
Koza
et al, Chapter 4
Koza
et al, Chapter 6
Nicholas
R. Miller, "Why the Electoral College Is Good for Political
Science," pp. 22-23
The U.S. Electoral College [PPT]
4. (October 1)
Origins and Transformation of the Electoral
College
Nicholas
R. Miller, "Why the Electoral College Is Good for Political
Science," pp. 1-10
Edwards, Chapters 1 and 4
Alexander Hamilton, Federalist
68
Robin
Kolodny, “The Several Elections of 1824”
The U.S.
Electoral College [PPT]
5. (October 8)
The Media and Presidential Elections [Guest
Lecture]
Polsby and Wildavky,
Chapter 3, section on Control Over Information, and Chapter 5,
The Campaign (pages vary by edition)
Media and
Presidential Elections [PPT]
6. (October 15)
Origins
and Transformation of the Electoral College (cont.)
Edwards, Appendices A and
B
Nicholas
R. Miller, "Why the Electoral College Is Good for Political
Science," pp. 12-13
The U.S. Electoral College [PPT]
7. (October 22)
Origins and
Transformation of the Electoral College (cont.) / Presidential Election
Mechanics
Edwards, Chapters 5-7
Presidential Election
Mechanics [PPT]
8. (October
29) CLASS CANCELLED (HURRICANE SANDY)
9. (November 5) IN-CLASS
MIDTERM EXAM (1 hr.) / Election Eve Preview / Presidential Election Mechanics
Presidential Election
Mechanics [PPT]
10. (November 12)
Post-Election Review / Presidential Election
Mechanics (complete)
11. (November
19) Election Inversions / Voting Power under the Electoral
College
Edwards, Chapter 2
Nicholas
R. Miller, "Why the Electoral College Is Good for Political
Science," pp. 16-18
Nicholas
R. Miller, "Election Inversions by the U.S. Electoral College"
(optional)
Nicholas
R. Miller, "Why the Electoral College Is Good for Political
Science," pp. 10-11, 13-16
Nicholas
R. Miller, "A Priori
Voting Power and the U.S. Electoral College" (optional)
Election Inversions under
the Electoral College [PPT]
Voting Power under the
Electoral College [PPT]
12. (November 26) Presidential Nominations
Polsby and Wildavsky,
Chapter 4
James
Bryce, "Why Great Men Are Not Chosen President"
Hugh
Heclo, “Presidential and Prime Ministerial Selection”
Anthony
King, “How Not to Select Presidential Candidates: A View From
Europe"
Lichtman, Chapters 3-7
Presidential Nominations [PPT]
13. (December 3) Multi-Candidate Elections and
Electoral College Deadlock
Edwards, Chapter 3
Nicholas
R. Miller, "Why the Electoral College Is Good for Political
Science," pp. 18-22
Multi-Candidate
Elections and Electoral College Deadlock [PPT]
13. (December 10) Historical
Presidential Elections: Student Presentations
14. (December 12 beginning at 3:00PM [Make-Up
Class]) Historical Presidential Elections: Student
Presentations (cont.)
15. (December 17) FINAL EXAM
(75 minutes): 6:00-8:00PM
Other PowerPoint Presentations
Electoral College Presentation for POLI
325 (11/26/12)
Electoral College Presentation for
POLI 323 (9/10/08)
The U.S. Electoral College:
Origins and Transformation, Problems and Prospects
[Constitution Day presentation]
Analyzing the
Electoral College [prepared for INFORMS Meeting 10/14/08]
Vote For a Black
Presidential Candidate? [PPT]
Papers and Articles
Minnesota
Clallenged
Spoiled Ballots?
Links to Course Related Websites
2008 Presidential Election
Electoral-Vote.Com
Five Thirty Eight
PollyVote
Real
Clear
Politics
Princeton
Election
Consortium
Pollster.Com
Gallup
Organization
Gallup
Tracking
Poll
CQ Politics:
Presidential Election Maps
2008 Election
Forecasts
Rassmussen
Report
Colleyrankings.com
Political
Forecasting
Allan
Lichtman
Commentary
HubDub:
News
Prediction Game
Frontloading
HQ
Iowa Electronic
Markets
Electoral
Compass
USA
2004 Presidential Election
Election 2004 Projections
Electoral
College
Meta-Analysis
Election Data
David
Leip's
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
Gallup
Presidential
Trial Heats: 1936-2004
Timeline
of
U.S. Presidential Elections
U.S.
Census:
Voting and Registration Data
Voting
America: 1840-2004 ("Cinematic Maps")
Maps
and Cartograms of 2004
Presidential
Vote
by Congressional District
U.S.
Presidential
Election Maps: 1860-1996
NORC
Florida Ballot Project
Lijphart
Election
Archive
Psephos:
Adam Carr's Election Archive
Electoral College
National
Archives
Electoral College Page
United
States
Electoral College (Pentopia)
U.S.
Electoral College Calculator
Electoral
College
Calculator
Electoral
College
Calculator and Map Generator
President
Elect
Resources
on
the Electoral College
Colorado
Proposition 36
Hayes vs.
Tilden: The Electoral College Controversy of 1876
Proceedings
of the Electoral Commission of 1877
Exploring
Constitutional
Conflicts: The Electoral College
Presidential Nominations
Presidential
Selection
Study
Voter Participation
United
States Election Project: Voting Turnout
Vanishing
Voter
Project
The
Electorate: Voters and Nonvoters
IDEA:
Voter
Turnout
Advocacy
Fair Vote
Fair
Vote Canada
Electoral Reform
Society (UK)
Representation
and
Democracy
e-democracy:
President
2008
Citizens for
True Democracy
The
Rest of Us: Abolish the Electoral College
America's
Worst
College
Ten
Arguments
for Keeping the Electoral College -- Refuted
Black
Vote
Smothered by the Electoral College
The
Indefensible
Electoral College
The
Preculiar
Institution
The Electoral
College: Source of Social Inequality and Injustice
Warped
Democracy
Options for
Electoral College Reform
Electoral Systems
Elections and
Electoral Systems
Comparative
Study of Electoral Systems
Report
of
the Independent Commission on the Voting System (UK)
Voting Integrity and Election Administration
CalTech-MIT
Voting
Technology Project
AEI-Brookings
Election Reform Project
Verified
Voting
Voting
Technology and Ballot Design (Center for American Politics
& Citizenship, UMCP)
NORC
Florida Ballots Project
Open Voting
Consortium
ElectionArchive.Org
Federal
Election Commission
Elections Canada
Presidential
election
Law
Voting Power
Computing
Algorithms
for Voting Power Analysis
Voting
Power
and Procedures (LSE)
Voting
Power
and Power Index Website
Power
Indices
of Voting Games
Banzhaf
Power Index
Banzhaf
Power Index
Mathematics
of
Voting Power
Weighted
Voting
Systems
European
Voting Games
AMS:
Voting
Games, Part 2
Voting Theory
Math
Against Tyranny
Accurate
Democracy
Poli$im
Approval
Voting
Home Page
Approval
Voting
Rob's
Politics
Social Science Blogs
Statistical
Modeling,
Causal Analysis, and Social Science (Andrew Gelman)
Social Science Statistics Blog (Institute for Quantitative
Social Science, Harvard U.)
Political
Arithmetic (Charles Franklin)
Fruits
and
Votes (Matthew Shugart)
Josep
Colomer's
Blog