SCENARIO SUMMARIES
YEAR: Scenario
PV: DPOP at which Dems win EV Majority (as a deviation from 50%)
EV: Difference between EV won at DPOP = 50% and EV won at DPOP = 50% + PV
WWA: Wrong Winner Area (= PV × EV)
SR: Swing Ratio (expressed as number of additional Electoral Votes won for each addition 1% of DPOP)
SRPC: Swing Ratio (expressed as percent of additional Electoral Votes won for each addition 1% of DPOP)
RSQ: r2 for EVCUM by DPOP for 45% < DPOP < 55%
YEAR |
PV |
EV |
WWA |
SR |
SRPC |
RSQ |
2004 |
-.29 |
25 |
.0010780 |
21.710 |
4.0350 |
.983 |
2000WW |
-1.45 |
57 |
.0122900 |
31.171 |
5.7940 |
.956 |
2000CD |
+1.43 |
14 |
.0036820 |
. |
. |
. |
2000C |
+.35 |
11 |
.0005727 |
25.413 |
4.2360 |
.993 |
2000B |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
2000A |
+1.35 |
27 |
.0054201 |
25.733 |
4.7831 |
.991 |
2000 |
+.27 |
55 |
.0022082 |
27.525 |
5.1162 |
.973 |
1996B |
-.91 |
30 |
.00406 |
|
. |
. |
1996A |
.+0.21 |
.34 |
..002123 |
. |
. |
. |
1996 |
-.42 |
23 |
.0014360 |
31.444 |
5.8446 |
.949 |
1992B |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1992A |
-.55 . |
35 |
.00286 . |
. |
. |
. |
1992 |
.+65 |
8 |
..0007732 |
. |
. |
. |
1988 |
.08 |
28 |
.0003331 |
33.847 |
6.2913 |
.969 |
1984 |
+.38 . |
43 |
.00243 |
. |
. |
. |
1980B |
-.56 . |
40 . |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1980A |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1980 |
-1.52 |
65 |
.0146910 |
. |
. |
. |
1976 |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1972 |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1968B |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1968A |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1968X |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1964 |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1960X |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1956 |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1952 |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1948B |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1948A |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1948X |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1944 |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
. |
1940S |
5.85 |
131 |
.1139550 |
12.603 |
2.3426 |
.815 |
1940 |
1.51 |
56 |
.0125740 |
30.108 |
5.5963 |
.841 |
1860 |
11.26 |
31 |
.0921611 |
. |
. |
. |