NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE MARGINS (Winner minus runner-up)

UNDER 1% (plus 2004)

Election       Margin in Votes    As Percent of Total Vote      Electoral Vote

  2004                3,536,000*                      3.00%*                               286-252*

  2000                   537,000                        0.51%                                267-271**

  1968                   510,000                        0.7%                                  301-198

  1960                  115,000**                      0.16%                                303-219

  1888                    90,000                         0.8%                                  168-233**

  1884                    26,000                         0.25%                                 219-182

  1880                      1,900                         0.02%                                 214-155        

CLOSEST ELECTORAL VOTE MARGINS

Election EV to win    Winner        Runner-up Other        Winner’s 2-P Pop Vote %

  2004             270            286*           252*               –                  51.54%*

  2000             270            271            267***            –                  49.885%**

  1976             270            297            241***            –                  51.05%

  1968             270            301            191               46                 50.405%

  1960             269            303            219               15                 50.086%

  1948             268            303            189               39                 52.32%

  1916             268            277            254                –                  51.64%

  1884             206            219            182                –                  50.129%

  1876             185            185            184                –                  48.47%**

* Based on preliminary returns as published in NY Times, 11/04/04. Assumes approx. 1.5 million votes for minor candidates. Assumes Bush carries NM and IW and that Kerry carries NH.

** Because of peculiarities in the Alabama ballot in 1960, there is some dispute about how to calculate the Alabama (and thus also the national) popular vote.

*** “Reversal of winners” election. (1876 election was resolved by a special Electoral Commission.)

*** Gore and Ford each lost one of these electoral votes due to “faithless electors.”

“TIPABILITY” OF POPULAR AND ELECTORAL VOTE SHIFTS

        Election Vote Shift to Tip Popular Vote Minimal Vote Shift to Tip EC Vote

            2004                       1,768,000                                          80,247

            2000*                         270,000                                               269

            1996                       4,102,000                                        911,000

            1992                       2,903,000                                        440,000

            1988                       3,539,000                                        907,000

            1984                       8,439,000                                     3,617,000

            1980                       4,210,000                                     1,074,000

            1976                          841,000                                             9,244

          * Popular and EC vote shifts are in opposite directions due to “reversal of winners.”

The “minimal vote shift to tip EC vote” figures are artificial, in that it is highly implausible to assume that votes would shift in exactly the required fashion. It would be more reasonable to assume that votes would shift across districts at a uniform rate. Under this assumption, it turns out (see handout on Popular Votes and Electoral Votes) that U.S. presidential elections (with the exception of the highly unusual 1860 election) are virtually equally “tipable” with respect to popular and electoral votes (because reversals of winners are generated only when the popular vote is almost equally split).