PREDICTIVE EQUATIONS WITH PREDICTIONS FOR 2004

1.         GDP CHANGE ONLY

            POPVOTE = 47.635 + 1.143 * GDP (r² = .264)

            BUSH VOTE = 47.635 + 1.143 * 3.8 = 52.0

2.         PRESPOP ONLY

            POPVOTE = 36.390 + 0.331 * POP (r² = .671)

            BUSH VOTE = 36.390 + 0.331 * 47 = 51.95

3.         BOTH GDP CHANGE AND PRESPOP

            POPVOTE = 35.900 + 0.488 * GDP + 0.300 * POP (r² = .708)

            BUSH VOTE = 35.900 + 0.488 * 3.8 + 0.300 * 47 = 51.85

4.         “TIME FOR A CHANGE” ONLY

            POPVOTE = 49.513 + 6.971 * TIME (r² = .389)

            BUSH VOTE = 49.513 + 6.971 * 1 = 56.5

5.         BOTH GDP CHANGE AND PRESPOP PLUS “TIME FOR A CHANGE”

            POPVOTE = 37.038 + 0.852 * GDP + 0.195 * POP + 5.607 * TIME (r² = .894)

            BUSH VOTE = 37.038 + 0.852 * 3.8 + 0.195 * 47 + 5.607 * 1 = 55.0