DATA FOR QUESTION 3


YEAR	GDPCHANGE	PRES POP	VOTE
1948	6.6	39	52
1952	1.7	32	45
1956	1.2	69	58
1960	2.9	49	50
1964	5.7	74	62
1968	6.2	40	49
1972	6.1	56	62
1976	5.9	45	49
1980	-1.8	21	45
1984	7.9	52	59
1988	4.8	51	54
1992	3.3	38	47
1996	4.2	57	54
2000	4.9	58	50
2004	3.8	47	??

YEAR is the Presidential election year.

GDP is real GDP growth over the Fall, Winter, and Spring quarter preceding the election (e.g., from October 1, 2003 through June 30, 2004 (from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/beahome.html).

PRES POP is the incumbent President’s approval rating in the first Gallup Poll taken after June 30 (Gallup Reports and http://www.gallup.com/ ).

VOTE is the percent of the two-party (i.e., excluding Perot, Nader, etc.) popular vote won by the Presidential candidate of the party that controls the White House.