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Is It In The Cards?

People in Baltimore are starting to whisper about the baseball wild card.
It's amazing what an 18-10 run since the All Star break can do for a town that is famished for success. I'm happy the home team is doing well, don't get me wrong, but I still think it's foolish to even entertain the thought of a postseason berth until the team gets to and stays above .500. A quick look at the current wild card standings follows (*denotes current division leader):

1. Oakland, 66-52*
2. Boston, 65-52, -.5
3. Texas, 65-52, -.5
4. Anaheim, 65-53, -1.0
5. Minnesota, 64-53, -1.5*
6. Cleveland, 63-57, -4.0
7. Chicago, 59-56, -5.5
8. Baltimore, 57-60, -8.5

I included Oakland because of the rather tight position in the American League West, and Minnesota because their record falls below the current wild card leader Boston. I left anyone more than 10 games out off the list arbitrarily, but with 45 games to go and 8 teams ahead in the standings, that seems logical. Baltimore is actually 8 games out as of today, since Oakland technically leads the West, but the race in the West should go down to the wire.
If Oakland plays straight to its winning percentage, the A's will end up with approximately 91 wins. Boston and Texas would have approximately 90 wins apiece. Anaheim and Minnesota would be around 88-89. Cleveland would have 85 wins or so. Chicago would scrape by with 83. Baltimore would have 79 (oddly enough, consistent with my preseason prediction).

Games remaining with other teams
1. Oakland: 6 games
2. Boston: 7 games
3. Texas: 3 games
4. Minnesota: 3 games
5. Others: zero games

That's 19 games total. The other teams, particularly Anaheim/Texas/Oakland and Minnesota/Cleveland/Chicago, have plenty of time to knock each other around. Even if the other teams somehow play .500 ball the rest of the way, we're still looking at 88 wins earning the wild card, leaving aside the glut of teams that may be tied. The case for Baltimore rests on these teams doing exactly that, with Baltimore winning every remaining series against each of the contenders, winning at least 12 games in the process. That's a possibility, but nothing more.
Let's take an even number of wins to make the wild card: 90. From where Baltimore sits, the team will have to go 33-12 in their next 45 games to even have a shot. That is three runs of 11-4 in each 15 game segment. Expecting a team that's struggling to reach .500 to play .733 ball the rest of the way is little short of insane. If it happens, no one would be happier, or more strapped for cash after buying playoff tickets, than I would. But it won't happen.
Let me repeat a salient point: the Orioles have gone 18-10 since the All Star break. Let me also add that there was an 8-game winning streak in the mix, which just happens to be the difference between the number of wins and losses. Even if they continue at that rate, they'll end up with 85 or 86 wins, which would be a triumph for the team, but well short of the wild card. A winning season would be a more positive step for this young team than a trip to the playoffs, where they'd likely face one of the strong teams in the West (although if it happened to be Texas, with the way we've manhandled the Rangers this season, that may prove very interesting; it's more likely that Oakland or Anaheim would wait for a wild card from the East or Central).
Another idea, similar to the first, has been floating around Baltimore: reach second place in the AL East. This may be a more fruitful line of thought with less room for disappointment. The margin in the standings is identical: eight games. The situation is very different in that instead of leapfrogging seven teams we only have to surpass one, a team with which we still have seven games remaining. Excepting the 7 games the teams have scheduled with each other, each team faces 18 games against teams with winning records and 20 games against teams with losing records. The odds, considering Boston's advantage in talent, have to favor the Red Sox, but if they fall apart, eight games can go away quickly, and it may be the Sox who will struggle to stay above .500.
I still don't think the Orioles will finish over .500 this season. Their rotation, while better recently, is suspect (the Orioles are 12th in the American League in runs allowed). Their offense, while improved, is not quite potent enough to carry the fledgling wings (7th in the league in runs scored). Add a premium bat in the outfield (Magglio Ordonez) and a legitimate ace (hmm...Pedro is the obvious choice, but with his personal issues and questionable health he may be too much of a risk), and this team becomes at least an 85-90 win squad.
Still, that having been said, this team has been a lot more fun to watch and follow than any other Orioles team this century.