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Sammy Sosa's Comin' To Town

You'd think I'd be thrilled or disgusted with this news.
So Sammy Sosa is an Oriole now? Assuming he spends 75% of the season in the lineup, he represents a dramatic improvement offensively over any of the constellation of light-hitting outfielders we have. Although I doubt he'll match his work from the late 90s, a 30-35 home run season would do just fine. Anything else would be even better. The price is reasonable (two minor league prospects, injury-prone Jerry Hairston, and seven million dollars). If he stays in the lineup, Sosa will be just fine.
The buzz around town is that the Orioles have added another bat when what they needed was a top quality starting pitcher. It's true. A number one starter would have been preferable to any bat (except for Bonds or Pujols), but the Orioles weren't going to sign anyone big this offseason anyway. I knew that going in. There were two factors in play mitigating against any big signings: the Washington Nationals, and the Orioles' tarnished reputation.
Peter Angelos, love him or hate him, has made too much noise about how a team in Washington would take money out of the Orioles' checkbook. Signing Carl Pavano (a good near miss), Pedro (whose arm should fall off in 2007), Tim Hudson/Mark Mulder (young studs who'd hate to pitch at Camden Yards), or anyone else for that matter, would have put the lie to Angelos' claims. Although Baltimore talked the talk with various free agents, walking the walk would have potentially cost Angelos compensation from Major League Baseball.
Furthermore, the Orioles have had seven straight losing seasons. From 1969-1994, the Orioles had the second highest winning percentage in all of baseball (the Yankees were number one). But in this age of instant gratification, it's hard to look past seven seasons of futility. To get a premium player (like Miguel Tejada), the O's would have to pay through the nose (although Tejada has worked out very well so far, having a career year last year). High profile free agents will use Baltimore's interest to jack up their contract offers from other teams. Baltimore either has to overpay, or lose out. More often, they lose out.
So the general consensus I infer from listening to sports radio and reading newspapers is that Sosa won't have much of an effect on the wins and losses, although his presence will help sell more tickets, thereby further enriching the generally maligned Peter Angelos, among others. I don't feel that way.
Lost in the sauce here is the fact that Baltimore actually scored more runs (843) than they allowed (830). Thirteen runs isn't a heck of difference, really, but basically the team's won-lost record was very close to their performance, perhaps hampered by losing the occasional game in extra innings in the rain or coming back from nine runs down to lose in extra innings by one run. The pitching staff, anchored in the end by two number three pitchers at best (Ponson and Rodrigo Lopez), played better in the second half after Ray Miller came on as pitching coach. The younger starters should do better on the whole than they did last year. The first year manager becomes a second year manager. What has changed, really?
No more David Segui (I think he played a full season total over four years).
No more Marty Cordova (former rookie of the year best known in Charm City for missing a game after...burning himself in a tanning bed).
No more Jerry Hairston (excellent tools, couldn't stay healthy).
In the end, the dead weight is gone. Nothing else has really changed.
Except for Sosa.
Sosa is an x factor for this year. He should hit his 600th home run this year unless he gets killed or otherwise immobilized. More fans may show up, and they may actually make noise. That would be good.
I think the Orioles are in much better shape than people think for 2005. Everyone says they can't win in the AL East with the two-headed monster of Boston and the Yankees. It's true that those teams have a serious financial advantage, and it's true that both teams are built to win over the course of 162 games, with New York having the edge in the regular season and Boston in the postseason (the pitching, look at the pitching). Call me crazy, but Baltimore's cracking the top two this year, and may even sneak into the top spot.
...
Ok, I'll call myself crazy.
Here's a magic number for you: 875. If the Orioles score 875 runs, they'll take second place in the division and maybe even win the damn thing. If they score 900, they certainly win it.
I'd like to see how many reputable people will pick the Orioles to finish first or second in the AL East. If someone put a gun to my head, this is how I see the division shaking out after 162 games: Baltimore, New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto.
You heard it here first.