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The Hit Man Cometh

He did it.
One of the two possible historical hits has happened this season for the Orioles. Rafael Palmeiro collected his 3,000th major league hit. The other, Sammy Sosa's 600th home run, doesn't seem likely, as the man I called an X-factor seems to have done not much of anything with his change of venue, pretty much as expected.
No biggie. The O's are within striking distance of first place in the crowded penthouse of the AL East, with the Yankees and Boston looming above them by a total of 1.5 games, Sosa or no Sosa.
Naturally, with 3,000 hits under his belt, many people are offering their opinions about Raffy's merits vis a vis the Hall of Fame. Most would say he's a no brainer, but a few have said no way.
He's a no brainer, plain and simple.
What are the knocks against him? The lack of MVP awards and All Star games loom largest. Palmeiro was often overshadowed by such players as Will Clark, Mo Vaughn, Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Frank Thomas, and Mark McGwire during his career, falling short of being the dominant player at his own position for nearly twenty years. One of the anecdotal requirements for being named to the Hall is surpassing excellence at your position. Palmeiro was never the number one first baseman in any particular year, but where he wasn't number one he was very often number two. Like Pete Rose, he seldom dominated, but he was "very very good for a very very long time" (Bill James).
Over the long haul, though, Palmeiro stands above all of these players. Let's take them one by one.

Will Clark

Clark and Palmeiro will always be linked, first as teammates at Mississippi State, then as rivals in the major leagues. Fans of the Orioles and the Rangers got to see both over consecutive periods of time. Palmeiro put up monstrous numbers for Baltimore from 1994-1998, while Clark, being a lesser player, was good, but not great. When Palmeiro left in 1999 and Clark came to town, the comparison wasn't even close.
Clark's only relevance to this discussion is that he was the player foolishly believed by so many to be the better. Again, he was good, but not great.

Mo Vaughn

From 1995-2000, Vaughn was every bit as good as Palmeiro. If Vaughn hadn't succumbed to injury in 2001, then retired in 2003, the discussion would become interesting, but as it is, while Vaughn may have been the best for a year or three, he wasn't consistently good over a very long time like Palmeiro. Both men suffered from having other exceptional first basemen around. What's Mo Vaughn doing now, I wonder?

Carlos Delgado

Very deadly and dangerous hitter. From 1998-2004, every bit as good as Palmeiro if not better with the bat. Simply a beast in 2001. Will his next 5-10 years match the comparable period in Raffy's career? Not as reliable with the glove as Raffy, but with comparable thunder and contact with the wood. He might reach 500 home runs, but 3,000 hits doesn't seem likely.

Jason Giambi

Jason Giambi is the poster child for everything evil about baseball in the mid-1990s through the present day, with his frank admission to a grand jury about steroid use. Unlike Barry Bonds, for example, Giambi has fallen very far. Still, he was a world-beater from 1999-2003. Atrocious with the glove, branded with the Scarlet S, and now largely missing from the game, he won't stack up to be half the player Palmeiro was.

Frank Thomas

The Big Hurt...from 1993-1997, this player more than anyone else would have been the consensus number one among AL first basemen, and for good reason. He won consecutive MVPs in 1993-1994, and was named to five straight All-Star teams. I still remember being awestruck by his performance in the 1994 Home Run Derby as he practically hit balls to the moon in Three Rivers Stadium. Over the long haul his numbers don't match Palmeiro's and probably won't, due to injury concerns. He has a good shot at 500 homers and an outside shot at 3,000 hits. He'll probably make the Hall of Fame, but if Palmeiro's case suffers from lack of domination, Thomas's case will be hurt a little by injuries, as well as the guilt by association of playing in a juiced-up era.

Mark McGwire

Big Mac. Blows the rest of these players, including Palmeiro, away in terms of All-Star appearances (12). McGwire was the ultimate power hitter, with nearly 36% of his hits being home runs. Sure, he was most likely a steroid user, and that will hurt his Hall of Fame consideration (he's up for consideration with Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken, who will both likely go in on the first ballot), but if there's any consideration for being the number one figure for a particular era, whether for good or for ill, McGwire should get all of it. He somehow won a Gold Glove, probably more on the strength of his hitting than his defense, but was not a very good defensive player. Palmeiro has a shot at matching or surpassing McGwire on the all time home run list, while nearly doubling the total hits collected. In terms of overall skill, Palmeiro is the better player, but McGwire, even with steroids in the picture, was simply superhuman, a larger than life figure who nearly stood even with Babe Ruth more so than any other player I've ever seen.

In terms of raw statistics, the case isn't even close. Palmeiro blows these other players away. I kept the comparison to players who spent a lot of time in the American League, although Raffy stands taller than Jeff Bagwell or Fred McGriff from the senior circuit. Bagwell is probably the closest in overall stature, with Frank Thomas a close second. Bagwell is another first-ballot Hall of Famer in the making, with a lot of the same strengths as Palmeiro, plus the added bonuses of being considered at least the best in his league for a long period of time, something Palmeiro, simply due to the glut of strong first basemen, could never claim.
The magic number of 500 home runs used to be a sure ticket to Cooperstown, although the obscene escalation of power numbers might obscure that a little, but 3,000 hits should still remain inviolate. Among active players, a number of them might come close to joining the 500/3000 club. A-Rod, Barry Bonds, and Bagwell will come close. Griffey might make a run at 3,000 hits, having already reached 500 home runs. Manny Ramirez and Vlad Guerrero might get close, too. With some of the younger players (Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira), it's too soon to tell, although Pujols is putting up insane numbers in his first four years. Simply put, though, any player who even sniffs the 500/3000 territory will have had a marvelous career.
My only question is this: will Palmeiro go into the Hall as a Ranger or an Oriole in 2011?