Answer: This insightful question in fact anticipates several ways in which game theory -- at least as applied to political problems -- has evolved in recent decades beyond the very simple models we have focused on.
One aspect of this evolution has been to incorporate bargaining moves (e.g., messages, threats, offers, concessions, etc.) into the formal definition of the game, with the result that the number of strategies available to both players is multiplied. In fact the numbers of strategies tends to multiply so quickly that the payoff matrix form [more formally known as the normal or strategic form] that we have focused on quickly becomes unwieldy. In its place, one can use the so-called extensive form (what Dixit & Nalebuff, pp. 34ff, call a game tree) is used. If all moves (even in a long sequence of moves) are made openly (so that each player sees what the other is doing as soon as he does it, or at least before he has to make his next move), then D&N's look ahead and reason back logic [technically called backwards induction] still holds. Therefore, if we able to draw the game tree and assign payoff to all possible outcomes, we can "solve" the game, i.e., identify the best [pure] strategy for each player and thus identify the outcome that results if the players play "rationally."
Another aspect of this evolution takes account of the (very realistic)
possibility that often players don't really know each other's payoffs --
that is, their goals, interests, values, and (especially important in games
line Chicken) willingness to take risks. Thus a new theory of games
with incomplete information has developed over past decade of two,
in which players may be are incompletely informed about the characteristics
of other players. Thus the theory must address the beliefs
that each player has about the other, which of course may be affected by
how the other player plays. Such a theory aims at an outcome in which not
just strategies but also beliefs are in equilibrium.
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Question: From the list of POLI 388 question: "Why
is it possible to extract advantages by holding hostages
but also inherently difficult to realize these advantages?" I would
answer the first part by saying how in the hostages' dilema, if there isn't
organization among the hostages, the hostage-holder can manipulate and
blackmail them. But if there were to be an organized revolt (eg, a workers'
union) the hostage-holder would lose his/her power.
Answer: Your answer makes (good) observations about
the game involving the hostages and the hostage-holders.
However, the point of this question is to focus on the game between the
hostage
holders and the authorities they are making demands on. In
this respect, the basic point is that the hostage holders' bargaining power
derives from the fact that they hold hostages and can harm/kill them.
This can be used as a basis for (deterrent or compellent) threats against
the authorities. The problem is that it is never in the self-interest
of the hostage holders actually to carry out this threat (because then
they have no more bargaining power and have lost), so the credibility of
their threat is always in doubt.
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Question: What do you mean by decomposing
the execution of a threat?
Answer: Decomposing (the execution of) a threat
means carrying it out gradually or bit at a time, rather than all at once
-- for example, hostage-holders executing one hostage a day (to try to
escape the cedibility problem noted above.
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Question: What are tactics of decommitment?
Are they the same as what Schelling in Arms and Influence, pp. 63-66,
refers to as escaping commitments?
Answer: Yes, the same -- I shouldn't have switched
terminology. The point is that if it becomes necessary to act contrary
to a previously made commitment, you want to try to accomplish this in
in a way that minimizes potential damage to your reputation (as an actor
who generally lives up to his commitments).
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Question: What is the distinction between
tactical and strategic surprise. Is it is basically
related to the difference between deterrence and actual conflict. For example,
is a tactical surprise designed on the premise that there will actually
be fighting and
the surprise is designed to have one be the victor?
Answer: A strategic surprise is an
attack that comes "out of the blue" -- like Pearl Harbor (presumably).
A tactical surprise is when you know/expect an attack is
coming but don't know exactly when or where. D-Day was a tactical
surprise, but not strategic surprise, to the Germans. (Clearly the
tactical-strategic distinction is a "more or less," rather than "either/or,"
distinction.) An attack that is carrying out a (deterrent or compellent)
threat cannot be a strategic surprise (unless maybe the threat had been
totally discounted by the threatened party).
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Question: What do you have in mind with the "impact
of nuclear weapons (plus long-range delivery systems) on international
politics" item on the Review List?
Answer: The "impact of nuclear weapons (plus
long-range delivery systems) on international politics" item on the Review
List was intended primarily to remind you of Schelling's discussion in
Chapter 1 of ARMS & INFLUENCE on "The Diplomacy
of Violence," which I also briefly recapitualted in class (probably
on May 5). He begins to characterize the "nuclear revolution" (i.e.,
the impact of nuclear weapons on international politics) on p. 18 but his
comments on pp. 22-23 are
especially pertinent.
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Question: What is controlled response
(from the Review List for the Final)?
Answer: By being shaded in the revised review
list, I meant to indicate that you are "not responsible" for this item.
Generally, controlled response refers to the possibilty
that the U.S. (or S.U.) might respond to nuclear attack attack on its homeland
(or some other extraordinary preovocation) with a nuclear response
than is something less than all-out nuclear retaliation. (Secretary
McNamara's "no cities doctrine" [Schelling, A&I, pp. 154, 162-156]
was a variant of controlled response.)
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