POLI 388 International Conflict and Cooperation

The course introduces game theory at an elementary level. Simple models of strategic interaction and conflict will be presented in order to analyze the strategy and tactics of international (and other) deterrence, coercion, bargaining, and cooperation. Special attention will be given to doctrines of nuclear strategy and arms control and to the changing strategic balance between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War period, as well as to issues of deterrence and preemption as they arise as they arise in the present era of asymmetric conflict. Prerequisite: Junior standing, POLI 280, or permission of instructor..

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Announcements: Final Grades will be ready on Tuesday, June 1 or earlier (consistent with what was said in the Guide to the Final Exam but inconsistent with what was said on the Final Exam sheet itself). Instead of posting grades here for those students who authorized this, I will send out out individual emails to all students once grades are ready. Note: if you check your grades on myUMBC now, you will find an "I" (Incomplete) for POLI 388; this is merely a placeholder until I have the actual grades ready.

Problem Set #1 PS #1: Answers PS #1.A&D

Problem Set #2 PS #2: Answers [Correction: Question 1 (1): only (s3,c2) is an equilibrium]

Guide to In-Class Midterm Test Answers & Discussion

Take-Home Midterm Assignment [Due Monday, April 19. Note: you are not expected to do any outside reading or research for this assignment. If you wish, you may copy selections of the speech from this link and paste them into your paper to indicate what parts of the speech you are referring to.] Answers & Discussion

Guidelines for Student Research Projects Sample Reports from Earlier semester: Iraq, Korea, Kyoto

Student Selections of Research Topics [updated 4/14 PM: by Friday 4/16, please send an email with this information: (1) reconfirmed and/or refined topic; (2) preliminary outline, particularly a first attempt to fit topic into the template outlined on the last page of syllabus and the first page of Guidelines for Projects; (3) preliminary sources and/or other resources: and (4) if presentations are optional, do you want to make a presentation (in early May).

If you have not yet done, please send me an email no later than 5/3 AM (and preferably earlier) indicating whether you (1) definitely want to make a class presentation, (2) definitely do not want to make a presentation, or (3) for the moment remain undecided

Sample POLI 388 Papers from Spring 2005

Student Research Presentations: No later than 5/3 AM (and preferably earlier), please send me an email indicating whether you (1) definitely want to make a class presentation, (2) definitely do not want to make a presentation, or (3) remain undecided and, if you want or may want to make a presentation, also indicating (4) your preferred day for making the presentation (Wed. May 5, Monday May 10, or Wed. May 12). You should plan on a presentation of about 10-15 minutes, which would be followed by some class discussion and Q&A. Given that presentations are optional, I will increase the weight of the research presentation plus report from 25% to 35% (reducing the weight of the other course requirements accordingly) in calculating your course grade, but I will do this only if doing so is to your advantage, i.e., only if your grade on the report plus presentation is higher than your average grade on the Midterm Test, Midterm Essay assignment, and Final Exam. (This means that, apart from the extra work involved, making a presentation is a dominant strategy.)

Presentation Schedule Note: most presentations will be on Friday 5/14, along with the review session beginning at 1:30PM in PUP 208 (next door to our regular classroom). As a courtesy to your fellow students, please attend the presentations if you possibly can.

Executive Summaries If you will not be making a class presentation, please submit to me no later than the last day of class (Wednesday, May 12) an electronic "Executive Summary" pertaining to your research topic. This should be about 200-300 words and it should briefly indicate what topic you are studying, why the topic is significant, and how various POLI 388 concepts and ideas may apply to the topic. Obviously this summary, like the class presentations, will be somewhat preliminary, since most likely you will still have work to do on final version of the report that you will submit by the end of the final exam period. The Executive Summaries will be posted on the course website. All students will be responsible for reading the posted summaries, as well as attending the class presentations. Some questions on the Final Exam will pertain to student research topics.

Optional Review Session on Friday, May 14, at 1:30 in PUB 206

Guide to Final Exam The Final Exam is scheduled for Monday, May 17, 1:00-3:00PM in PUP 206.

Information on Psi Sigma Alpha Undergraduate Research Conference

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Required Books for Spring 2010:

Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, Thinking Strategically, paperback, W. W. Norton: 1991, 0-393-31035-3, Publisher's price: $18.95; Amazon Price (as of 12/03/09): $12.89 (plus used copies available)

Robert F. Kennedy, Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis, paperback, W. W. Norton, 1999, 0-393-31834-6, Publisher's Price: $13.95: Amazon Price (as of 12/03/09): $10.04 (plus used copies available)

Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (With a New Preface and Afterword), paperback, Yale University Press, 2008, 9780300002218, Publisher's price: $20.00; Amazon Price (as of 12/03/09): $17.10 (plus used copies available)
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Course Syllabus with links to readings

Course Syllabus [PDF]

Bulletin Board (Question & Answer)

Topics and Power Points

Topic #1 Overview
POLI 388 Questions

    Topic #2   Playing Games
                            Social Coordination Games
                            Fair Division, the Ultimatum Game, and Bargaining
                            Coordination with Conflicting Interests
                            Social Dilemma Game
                            The Centipede Game
                            The Dollar Auction Game
                            The Social Coordination Game
                            "Tacit Coordination" (from T. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, Chapter 3 ("Bargaining, Communication, and Limited War")
                            The Social Dilemma Game

    Topic #3   Games Against Nature (revised 02/05/10)
                            Strategies
                          Payoffs
                          One-Player Games (Games Against Nature)
                          The Payoff Matrix (Strategic Form)
                          Undominated and Dominant Strategies
                          Maximin Strategies

    Topic #4   Classic 2x2 Simultaneous Choice Games (slightly revised 2/19/10)
                        Matching Pennies (Coordination)
                        Battle of the Sexes (Coordination and Conflict)
                          Prisoner’s Dilemma
                          Chicken
                          Nash Equilibrium

    Topic #5    Zero-Sum (Total Conflict) Games
                        Strictly Determined Zero-Sum Games (“Battle of the Bismark Sea”)
                        Saddlepoint
                          Non-Strictly Determined Zero-Sum Games (“D-Day Invasion”)
                         Mixed Strategies
                           The Minimax Theorem

    Topic #6   Variations on 2x2 Games
                        Preplay Communication (Cheap Talk)
                          Strategic Intelligence
                        Strategic Deception
                           Credible Commitment
                           Threats and Promises
                         Sequential Play
                         Agreements and Side Payments
                         Repeated Play

    Topic #7   Extensive and Normal Forms
                          The Extensive vs. Strategic Form
                            Perfect vs. Imperfect Information
                          Backwards Induction (“Look ahead and reason back”)

    Topic #8   Other Game Theory Topics [not covered]
                        Complete vs. Incomplete Information
                        Repeated Games and Reputation Effects
                          Side Payments and Transferable Utility
                          Cooperative Games and the Core
                          Simple Games

    Topic #9   Voting and Social Choice [not covered]
                          Majority Rule and the Median Voter
                          Sincere (or Naive) vs. Strategic Voting
                          Agenda Control
                          Veto Games

    Topic #10   Bargaining and Bargaining Tactics
                      Thomas Schelling, "An Essay on Bargaining"

Topic #11 Bargaining and Bargaining Tactics (cont.)

No Topic #12 First Midtern Test

Topic #13 Secrecy, Surprise, and Deception

    Topic #14   Defense and Deterrence
                       Defense and Offense
                           Deterrence and Compellence
                           Absolute and Relative Gains
                      Endurance Contests

Topic #15 Specific Deterrence and Compellence

Topic #16 Credibility and General Deterrence

Topic #17 The Security Dilemma, Deterrence, and the Spiral Model

Topic #18 Brinksmanship, Escalation, and Crisis

Topic #19 Nuclear Origins
Albert Wohlstetter, "The Delicate Balance of Terror"

Topic #20 Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)

    Topic #21   Nuclear Strategy
                           Counterforce vs. Countervalue
                           Controlled Response
                           Extended Deterrence
                          War by Accident
                        Robert McNamara (Secretary of Defense), “The No Cities Doctrine”
                        J. Peter Scoblic, "Robert McNamara's Logical Legacy,"

    Topic #22   Nuclear Options
                         Civil Defense
                           Strategic Defense
                         Arms Control
                         Nuclear Proliferation
                           Nuclear Terrorism

Topics #23-29 TBA

Guidance on Plagiarism and Academic Integrity

        UMBC: Overview of Academic Integrity
        Resources for Students
        Guidance on Plagiarism (Prof. Roy Meyers)
        "Plagiarism" by Prof. Earl Babbie

Class Handouts [from Sping 2005 -- will be throughly revised and put into PowerPoint]

        Course Overview Questions
        The Social Coordination Games
        The Social Dilemma Game
        Social Dilemmas and Related Problem of a Game-Theoretical Nature
        Overview of Game Theory
        Fundamental Distinctions, Categories, and Terminology
        Principles of Choice in Games Against Nature
        Decision Problems (Examples)
        Coordination Games
        Variations on Simple Payoff Matrices
        Review of Decision Principles and Variations (PDF)
        Non-Strictly Determined Zero-Sum Games and Mixed Strategies
        Q & A: Mixed Strategies and Non-Strictly Determined Zero-Sum Games
        Review of Strategic Situations: Simple 2×2 Payoff Matrices
        Bargaining Tactics
        Dollar Auction / Enduring Conflict Game
        Strategic Nuclear Balance During the Cold War

Problem Sets

Other Material on Cuban Missile Crisis

        N. R. Miller, "The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Political Analysis"
        N. R. Miller, "The Cuban Missile Crisis in the International System"
        The Cuban Missile Crisis, October 18-29, 1962 (audio clips)
        The Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962: The 40th Anniversary, National Security Archive,
                    George Washington University
      The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Historical Perspective, JFK Library and Foundation
        The National Security Agency and the Cuban Missile Crisis
        The Cuban Missile Crisis, Le Mémorial de Caen [France]

General Links

        UMBC Political Science Department
        Instructor's Homepage (bio, research, other courses, etc.)
        Albin O. Kuhn (UMBC) Library home page
        American Political Science Association

Current Events

        Washington Post
        New York Times on the Web (requires free registration)
        CNN World
        PBS News Hour
        C-SPAN
        BBC World Service
        The Times (London)
        The Guardian (UK)