The Future of Phones

Will Wireless Dominate Voice Communications?


 

 

 

Chris Esposito

Student, UMBC

May 13, 1999

CMSC 481

cespos2@gl.umbc.edu

http://www.gl.umbc.edu/~cespos2/

 

Abstract

Will wireless phones dominate voice communications?  The answer to this question is not a clear one.  There are many different aspects to examine before making a conclusion on this subject matter.  One can never say for sure, because the future is unknown.  Conjectures can be made based upon the tradeoffs that are made between the wired and wireless medium, as well as recent trends in consumer choices.  Some of the aspects to examine are security, bandwidth, and reliability.  Based upon my research into this matter, I believe that in fact wireless technology will dominate voice communications somewhere in the near future.

Key Words

Voice Communications: Audio transmissions sent from one location to another specified location with the use of a transmitting and a receiving device.

Cellular: A telephone network technology, where receiving areas are divided in to local areas called cells, where mobile phone user can receive data from centralized broadcasting stations.

Personal Communication Services (PCS): A code division multiple access (CDMA) technology using the 1.7 gigahertz to 2.3 gigahertz band and cells of size 50 to 100 meter wide.  (Tanenbaum, 163)

Personal Communication Network (PCN): Same as the U.S. term PCS only in Europe. (Tanenbaum, 163)

Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA): A technology by which the units of a two way conversations use a unique m-bit code to accept the messages destine for them and use the code to ignore the transmissions set for someone else as noise. (Tanenbaum 271)

Analog: A way of transmitting data by which information is encoded into waves.

Digital: A way of transmitting data by which information is encoded into ones and zeros.

Bandwidth: The maximum amount of data that can be transmitted at a certain time over a certain pathway.

Security: The ability of a communication system to keep data in transmission from being compromised by outside sources, whom the data is not intended for.

Reliability: A measure of how likely data is transmitted from one source to another without corruption of the data and in the case of voice, maintaining the desired order of the data.

Report Body

Introduction:

Will wireless phones dominate voice communications?  The answer to this question is not a clear one.  There are many different aspects to examine before making a conclusion on this subject matter.  One can never say for sure, because the future is unknown.  New technologies become available every day.  Conjectures can be made based upon the tradeoffs that are made between the wired and wireless medium, as well as recent trends in consumer choices and technological advances.  Some of the aspects to examine when making this determination are how secure the data transmissions are, what are the bandwidth limitations of each technology, how reliable is the service, and what are the overall costs of the technology.  Only after a careful evaluation of these and other factors can a reasonable hypothesis be fashioned.

Currently available wired technology:

There are currently many technologies available for transmitting data over a wired pathway.  Some examples of wired transmission technology are wired ATM, Frame Relay, TDM, FDM and SONET.

Wired Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM):

Wired ATM is a communication method used by most long distance telephone services, by which data is transferred in small packets over a Broad Band ISDN line.  The ISDN line is not essential, but it is the current implementation. (Tanenbaum, 61-65)

Frame Relay:

Frame Relay is technology by which a line is leased between two sites for unlimited traffic.  This is not feasible for most individual phone service, because it would require a line between you and everyone you might call in your lifetime. (Tanenbaum, 60-61)

Frequency Division Multiplexing (FDM):

FDM is a technology by which data is sent using the frequency spectrum.  The spectrum is divided into channels which each ongoing conversation using part of the spectrum for its transmissions. (Tanenbaum, 118-121)

Time Division Multiplexing (TDM):

TDM is a technology by which data is sent in a round robin fashion, where each site gets the pathway for a part of the time. (Tanenbaum, 118)

Synchronous Optical Network (SONET):

SOENT is the most commonly used method for long distance telephone service.  It is designed to interface European, U.S., and Japanese services.  It uses TDM over an ATM to pass information. (Tanenbaum, 125-130)

Advantages of wired technology:

There are many advantages of wired technologies.  The infrastructure is already in place and paid for.  The cost consumer cost is less due to the availability of many competing land based voice carriers.  The technology has survived the test of time and been shown to be reliable and is readably available for expansion if necessary.  The bandwidth is high with coaxial cable and seemingly limitless with the use of fiber cables. Another advantage is that the signal is transported inside a wire keep then from being intercepted by outside source, thus increasing security.

Disadvantages of wired technology:

Most of the disadvantages of wired technologies are a result of the need to run cable.  Wired technology requires that cables be run from all points of communication to all other points of communication.  This can be very costly if the target locations are far spread from one another.  The lines need to be maintained if damaged due to act of nature or human error.

Currently available wireless technology:

There are also many technologies available for transmitting data over a wireless pathway.  Some examples of wireless transmission technology are Cellular, Echo Cancellation, Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM), Local Multipoint Distribution Systems (LMDS), Personal Communications Services (PCS), Smart Antenna Systems, Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA), Wireless Intelligent Network (WIN), Wireless Local Loop (WLL), and Wireless Short Message Service (SMS).

Cellular:

A cellular mobile communications system uses a large number of low-power wireless transmitters to create "cells"—the basic geographic service area of a wireless communications system. Variable power levels allow cells to be sized according to the subscriber density and demand within a particular region. As mobile users travel from cell to cell, their conversations are "handed off" between cells in order to maintain seamless service. Channels (frequencies) used in one cell can be reused in another cell some distance away. Cells can be added to accommodate growth, creating new cells in unserved areas or overlaying cells in existing areas. (Web Pro Forums)

Echo Cancellation:

Echo cancellation is a technology to provide near-wireline voice quality across a wireless carrier's network.  The cancellation is accomplished through reflections of the waves.

Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM):

Global System for Mobile Communication (GSM) is a globally accepted standard for digital cellular communication. GSM is the name of a standardization group established in 1982 to create a common European mobile telephone standard that would formulate specifications for a pan-European mobile cellular radio system operating at 900 MHz. (Web Pro Forums)

Local Multipoint Distribution Systems (LMDS):

Local multipoint distribution system (LMDS) is the broadband wireless technology used to deliver voice, data, Internet, and video services in the 25-gigahertz and higher spectrum (depending on licensing). (Web Pro Forums)

Personal Communications Services (PCS):

Personal communications services (PCS) is a new generation of wireless-phone technology that introduces a range of features and services surpassing those available in analog- and digital-cellular phone systems. PCS provides the user with an all-in-one wireless phone, paging, messaging, and data service having a greatly improved battery-standby time. (Web Pro Forums)

Smart Antenna Systems:

A smart antenna system combines multiple antenna elements with a signal-processing capability to automatically optimize its radiation and/or reception pattern in response to the signal environment. (Web Pro Forums)

Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA):

Time division multiple access (TDMA) is digital transmission technology, which allows a number of users to access a single radio frequency channel without interference by allocating unique time slots to each user within each channel. The TDMA digital transmission scheme multiplexes three signals over a single channel. The current TDMA standard for cellular divides a single channel into six time slots, with each signal using two slots, providing a 3 to 1 gain in capacity over AMPS. Each caller is assigned a specific time slot for transmission. (Web Pro Forums)

Wireless Intelligent Network (WIN):

WIN is a concept being developed by the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) Standards Committee TR45.2. The charter of this committee is to drive IN capabilities, based on IS–41, into wireless networks. IS–41 is a standard currently being embraced by wireless providers because it facilitates roaming. (Web Pro Forums)

Wireless Local Loop (WLL):

Sometimes called radio in the loop (RITL) or fixed-radio access (FRA), wireless local loop (WLL) is a system that connects subscribers to the public switched telephone network (PSTN) using radio signals as a substitute for copper for all or part of the connection between the subscriber and the switch. This includes cordless access systems, proprietary fixed radio access, and fixed cellular systems. (Web Pro Forums)

Wireless Short Message Service (SMS):

Short message service (SMS) is a globally accepted wireless service that enables the transmission of alphanumeric messages between mobile subscribers and external systems such as electronic mail, paging, and voice mail systems. (Web Pro Forums)

Advantages of wireless technology:

Some of the advantages of these wireless technologies are that cables need not be run throughout vast rural areas to reach people.  Satellites can be launched into orbit as a means of spanning oceans.  There is increased flexibility for the individual user, because the communication device may be brought along with them and used in all areas that support the technology.

Disadvantages of wireless technology:

After look at the advantages of wireless technology some key must be considered.  The bandwidth limitations of the currently available technology discourage the use in urban areas where there is a demand for large bandwidth.  The technology is more costly due to the need for research and development.  The technology has not been tested over a long term of time for reliability and repair costs.  Certain technologies are not available in all areas, which leaves people with the unsupported technology disconnected.  Wireless technology requires that data be sent over open space, which makes it susceptible to interception and decreases the security of the transmission.  This can be overcome with encryption.

Trends in consumer purchases and data pathways:

In recent years consumer buying habits have changed with the additional choice of wireless voice communications. "The wireless communications market is the fastest growing segment of the US$900 billion telecommunications market. Wireless communication equipment has been projected to grow from its current US$40 billion level to US$280 billion by 2010, according to Motorola." (Act News Clips)  These figures along with those shown in the charts in the appendix show that the trend is indeed in favor of wireless communication.  Complete infiltration is not likely for some time, because some people are reluctant to change from what they are accustomed to.

Side effect of recent trends in data transmission:

            In recent years the availability of new wireless technology for data transmission, such as satellite television, has increased the use of wireless voice communications, because the data transmissions require a larger bandwidth for transmission.  This allows this data technology to be used, with mild alterations and enhancements, for voice communications.

Conclusion:

Based upon my research into this matter, I believe that in fact wireless technology will dominate voice communications somewhere in the near future.  I believe this to be the case since recent trends in choice by consumers, the decreasing cost of wireless communication and the ever-evolving technology that will transcend the bandwidth limitations.  After it is in use for a while, just like all other recent technological breakthroughs, IE the compact disc, the personal computer, the microwave, the costs will continue to fall as they become part of everyday life for most of the populous.

Appendices

 

Trends in Cellular Communications 1986-1998 (World of Wireless Communication)


 

 


Revenue Growth in Wireless Communications (America's Network)



 

Trends is Mobile Phone use in European Countries (Acts News Clips)

 

Country

No. mobiles 1996

No mobiles 1997

Change %

Penetration 1996 %

Penetration 1997 %

Austria

452,598

753,900

+63

5.64

9.19

Belgium

344,044

698,200

+103

3.37

6.85

Denmark

1,139,161

1,316,592

+16

21.19

25.32

Finland

1,260,554

1,772,263

+41

24.72

34.75

France

1,768,796

3,577,657

+102

3.02

6.12

Germany

4,625,000

6,460,000

+40

5.63

7.86

Greece

393,653

715,404

82

3.75

6.81

Ireland

180,666

341,500

+89

5.02

9.49

Italy

4,787,205

8,210,000

+71

8.37

14.35

Luxembourg

35,120

53,000

+51

8.78

13.25

The Netherlands

763,700

1,337,111

+75

4.86

8.52

Norway

1,065,485

1,378,286

+29

24.22

31.32

Portugal

434,200

865,008

+99

4.43

8.83

Spain

1,692,000

3,583,000

+112

4.26

9.03

Sweden

2,192,421

2,632,369

+20

24.91

29.91

Switzerland

552,150

798,600

+45

7.56

10.94

United Kingdom

6,026,000

7,372,600

+22

10.35

12.66

 

References

1. Acts News Clips; March 1997; http://www.de.infowin.org/ACTS/IENM/NEWSCLIPS/arch1997/970902no.html

 

2. "America's Network," December 1, 1996; http://www.americasnetwork.com/issues/96issues/961201/120196_research.html.

 

3. C., Edward; University of British Columbia, Department of Electrical Engineering; http://www.ee.ubc.ca/home/comlab1/edwardc/etc/www/mobility/mobility_intro.htm.

 

4. Kotkas, Vanhur, et al; "Mobile Phone Network Simulation," http://www.cs.ioc.ee/ioc/res98/mobnet.html.

 

5. "Research Report King"; King Communications International Limited;  http://www.king-international.com/research.html#wire.

 

6. Stancil, Daniel D. and Unetich, Robert M.; "Wireless Communications";

http://www.ece.cmu.edu/pubs/vision/wireless.html

 

7. Tanenbaum, Andrew S.; Computer Networks, Third Edition; Prentice Hall PTR, 1996.

 

8. Web Pro Forums; http://www.webproforum.com/wpf_wireless.html.

 

9. The World of Wireless Communication; http://www.wow-com.com.

 

Images on Cover Page:                                                                                                                    

 

1. http://www.staples.com/st/product.asp?skusetid=900599

2. http://www.staples.com/st/product.asp?skusetid=847830

3. http://www.sprintpcs.com/store/show_phone.asp?sku=SCP3000KIT